{"id":794,"date":"2021-01-10T11:55:53","date_gmt":"2021-01-10T11:55:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covid1984.nohost.me\/blog\/?p=794"},"modified":"2022-08-20T11:09:02","modified_gmt":"2022-08-20T11:09:02","slug":"evaluation-des-effets-des-confinements-stricts-sur-la-propagation-du-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/2021\/01\/10\/evaluation-des-effets-des-confinements-stricts-sur-la-propagation-du-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuation des effets des confinements stricts sur la propagation du COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Une \u00e9tude, dat\u00e9e du 5 janvier 2021, analyse les effets des fermetures d'entreprises et les confinements \u00e0 domicile forc\u00e9 sur la propagation du covid.
Sans grande surprise, l'efficacit\u00e9 est nulle, voire pr\u00e9judiciable, alors que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts sont bien r\u00e9els.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Pour les articles qui ne sont pas en fran\u00e7ais, vous pouvez utiliser DeepL<\/a> pour traduire le texte en fran\u00e7ais.<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wiley Online Library - Assessing Mandatory Stay\u2010at\u2010Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID\u201019<\/a>
Temps de lecture: 4-5 minutes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L'\u00e9tude compl\u00e8te est disponible en PDF<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs <\/em><\/em>(ndlr: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions). Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.<\/em><\/em>
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Si de petits avantages ne peuvent \u00eatre exclus, nous ne trouvons pas d'avantages significatifs sur la croissance des cas lors d'INP <\/em>(ndlr: Interventions Non-Pharmaceutiques) plus restrictives. Des r\u00e9ductions similaires de la croissance des cas peuvent \u00eatre obtenues avec des interventions moins restrictives.<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

there is no evidence that more restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (\u201clockdowns\u201d) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020.<\/em><\/em><\/em>
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rien ne prouve que des interventions non pharmaceutiques plus restrictives (\"confinements\") aient contribu\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re substantielle \u00e0 infl\u00e9chir la courbe des nouveaux cas en Angleterre, en France, en Allemagne, en Iran, en Italie, aux Pays-Bas, en Espagne ou aux \u00c9tats-Unis au d\u00e9but de 2020.<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The direction of the effect size in most scenarios point towards an increase in the case growth rate<\/em><\/em><\/em>
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La direction de la taille de l'effet dans la plupart des sc\u00e9narios indique une augmentation du taux de croissance des cas<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Considerations of harms should play a prominent role in policy decisions, especially if an NPI is ineffective at reducing the spread of infections.<\/em><\/em><\/em>
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Les consid\u00e9rations relatives aux pr\u00e9judices devraient jouer un r\u00f4le de premier plan dans les d\u00e9cisions politiques, en particulier si une INP<\/em> est inefficace pour r\u00e9duire la propagation des infections.<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020.<\/em><\/em><\/em>
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En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, nous ne trouvons pas de preuves solides soutenant un r\u00f4le pour des INP plus restrictives dans le contr\u00f4le de la COVID au d\u00e9but de 2020.<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures.<\/em><\/em><\/em>
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Les donn\u00e9es ne peuvent pas exclure totalement la possibilit\u00e9 de certains avantages. Toutefois, m\u00eame s'ils existent, ces avantages peuvent ne pas correspondre aux nombreux inconv\u00e9nients de ces mesures agressives.<\/em><\/p>Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, John P.A. Ioannidis<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Une \u00e9tude, dat\u00e9e du 5 janvier 2021, analyse les effets des fermetures d'entreprises et les confinements \u00e0 domicile forc\u00e9 sur la propagation du covid.Sans grande surprise, l'efficacit\u00e9 est nulle, voire pr\u00e9judiciable, alors que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts sont bien r\u00e9els.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77,17],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid19","category-ressources","tag-confinement"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2293,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions\/2293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crudelis.fr\/site\/covid1984\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}